Jesse Felder makes the case that today’s market is flashing some of the most extreme signals he’s ever seen—especially when it comes to sentiment, valuation, and speculative positioning. He warns that many investors have abandoned any focus on fundamentals, replacing them with a blind belief in momentum and Federal Reserve support. According to Felder, the result is a market detached from reality and extremely vulnerable to a sharp reset.

Jesse walks through key indicators—like investor allocations to equities, volatility positioning, and earnings multiples—that are at or near historic extremes. Even soft landing believers (those who anticipate that an economy can slow down without entering a recession), he argues, are now fully bought in, leaving no one left to push prices higher. Meanwhile, cracks are appearing in the foundation: credit card delinquencies are rising, the labor market is cooling, and corporate earnings expectations are quietly resetting lower.

Rather than panic, Felder sees this as an opportunity to be cautious, selective, and diversified. He’s positioning for downside not with outright bets against the market, but by moving away from the overvalued and toward areas with real earnings power and margin of safety. This isn’t a fear-based strategy—it’s a patient one rooted in cycles and discipline, not headlines.¹ (Note, the views and opinions expressed in this video do not constitute investment advice.)