In Peter Boockvar’s view, the Fed’s expected rate cuts might not play out the way many hope…

With financial conditions already easy, he warns those cuts could shrink savers’ income without giving the economy the usual lift – especially if long-term rates don’t come down and stay down.

Housing is the swing factor. Without more supply, lower mortgages only push prices higher.

Boockvar, the Chief Investment Officer of OnePoint BFG Wealth Partners, a $10+ billion adviser, and author of The Boock Report on Substack, also digs into how tariffs ripple through the economy.

In theory they’re a one-time tax. In practice, they can jam up supply chains, raise building costs, and ultimately push rents higher… Like construction inputs that can slow apartment builds or pressure margins, setting up a rent re‑acceleration. And he is skeptical that the tariffs will deliver net benefits to growth in manufacturing.

He touches on corporate earnings, too – pointing out that strength has been concentrated in the largest tech names. The broader market is improving, but durability depends on the economy. He cautions that the data‑center buildout and AI‑linked capex are running at an extraordinary pace. It’s driving growth now, but he doesn’t think it can last forever.

So where is he looking instead?

He favors widening beyond the top U.S. mega‑caps, looking to precious metals, select commodities, and non‑U.S. equities despite strong increases on these fronts already.

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